The urgency around the problem of Global Warming has increased over the last 35 years, as global temperatures have risen to their highest recorded levels. But, over the past ten years, global temperatures have leveled off. In fact, the global temperature in 2011 was virtually the same as in 2000.
Conspiracy theories abound. Proponents of climate change treaties have glossed over the most recent data. Opponents have conveniently ignored the dramatic run up in temperature from 1976 to 1998.
What’s really going on?
As it turns out, CO2 does have an impact on global temperature, but natural cycles which are completely out of our control have an impact as well. Sunspot activity has an impact on global temperature. As sunspot activity has declined over the last few years, it has largely negated the impact of increased CO2 emissions on global temperature.
So, does that mean we should trade the old Prius in for a new Hummer? Not exactly.
Sunspot activity follows an 11-year cycle, so that we should expect as sunspot activity returns to normal, global temperatures will rise rapidly again.
Our data analysis using our Geneva forecasting software indicates that including the impact of sunspots is the single biggest factor in projecting global warming. If you ignore the sunspot cycle, you can easily come up with a forecast that global warming is over, and that temperature will stay the same for the foreseeable future.
If you include sunspot activity, then global temperatures are forecast to increase by 0.67 degrees Celsius or 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2050.
The good news is that the sunspot cycle has given us about ten years to implement whatever climate agreement comes out of Copenhagen.
So let’s not panic, but let’s not bet the planet’s future on the last ten years of high, but fairly constant global temperatures.